Reported by Mustapha Omolabake Omowumi, Managing Editor | Sele Media Malawi.
LILONGWE, Malawi — Malawi’s persistent fuel-supply difficulties could continue into January 2027, with foreign exchange shortages, rising import costs and weaknesses across the fuel supply chain continuing to constrain the country’s ability to secure adequate stocks of petrol and diesel.
The outlook raises fresh concerns for motorists, public transport operators, farmers, manufacturers, traders and households already facing elevated living costs, as prolonged fuel shortages could further increase transportation expenses and the cost of moving goods and services across the country.
The projection is contained in analysis by FEWS NET, which anticipates fuel shortages in Malawi between June 2026 and January 2027 because of continuing foreign-exchange constraints. The organisation also expects Malawi’s foreign-exchange shortages to persist through at least January 2027, driven by structurally low export earnings, high import demand and limited foreign reserves.
The forecast comes as fuel queues and supply disruptions have again become visible in parts of Malawi. Recent reports from Malawian media indicate that motorists have experienced difficulties obtaining both diesel and petrol, while authorities continue working to secure supplies and address the underlying foreign-currency constraints.
The situation is particularly significant because Malawi relies heavily on imported petroleum products to power its transport, agricultural, commercial and industrial activities. Any sustained interruption in fuel availability therefore extends well beyond filling stations, affecting the wider economy.
Forex shortage at the centre of the crisis
At the heart of Malawi’s fuel challenge is a shortage of foreign exchange.
National Oil Company of Malawi (NOCMA) officials have repeatedly identified limited access to foreign currency as one of the major obstacles to securing petroleum imports.
NOCMA Chief Executive Officer Emmanuel Mataka told Parliamentary Committees on Budget and Finance in September that the country continues to face a structural gap between the foreign exchange it generates and the amount required to finance essential imports, including fuel.
According to reporting by The Malawi Guardian, Mataka said fuel imports require payment in United States dollars or euros, currencies that remain difficult to obtain in Malawi. He also disclosed that NOCMA had imported about six million litres through Tanzania’s Tanga and Dar es Salaam ports, while more than three million litres of petrol and diesel were in transit from Beira Port in Mozambique.
The development illustrates the extent to which Malawi’s fuel availability is tied to the country’s broader balance-of-payments position.
Unlike a country with substantial domestic petroleum production or refining capacity, Malawi must obtain foreign currency to purchase much of the fuel consumed domestically. When the availability of dollars and other major currencies is restricted, importers can struggle to settle payments and maintain a regular flow of petroleum products.
NOCMA has also acknowledged that the problem has affected strategic reserves.
In a separate briefing reported by the Malawi News Agency, NOCMA CEO Clement Kanyama said the country has struggled to generate sufficient foreign exchange for critical imports since the COVID-19 period. He explained that suppliers have at times provided fuel on open credit, but Malawi has faced difficulty meeting payment obligations when those amounts fall due.
The consequence, according to the NOCMA explanation, has been periods when strategic fuel reserves have been depleted and retail outlets have experienced outright stock-outs.
January 2027 projection requires caution
While the phrase “fuel shortages will continue until January 2027” captures the seriousness of the current outlook, available evidence does not establish January as a guaranteed end date for the crisis.
Rather, January 2027 represents the current forecast horizon for persistent foreign-exchange and fuel-supply pressures.
FEWS NET’s June 2026 analysis specifically projected fuel shortages between June 2026 and January 2027 because of foreign-exchange constraints. Its subsequent August update continued to identify persistent foreign-exchange shortages as a major constraint on imports of essential commodities, including fuel.
This distinction is important for accurate public reporting.
Fuel availability can improve temporarily when new shipments arrive, emergency financing is secured, or alternative supply routes become operational. Equally, shortages can return when imported stocks run down, foreign exchange becomes unavailable or external supply and transport conditions deteriorate.
Indeed, NOCMA reported earlier in 2026 that fuel availability had improved after the company increased imports through Tanga Port in Tanzania. The company said the additional route had helped restore supplies following months of shortages.
That experience demonstrates why the present situation should not be interpreted as a fixed shortage that will necessarily remain at the same intensity every day until January.
Instead, Malawi faces a continuing structural vulnerability in which temporary improvements can be followed by renewed shortages if the underlying foreign-exchange problem remains unresolved.
Fuel shortages threaten transport costs
The immediate impact of fuel shortages is being felt most directly by motorists and transport operators.
When petrol and diesel become difficult to obtain, motorists spend longer periods searching for available fuel, while public transport operators face uncertainty over whether they can secure enough fuel to maintain regular services.
For commercial transporters, the implications are even wider.
Fuel is a major operating expense for buses, minibuses, trucks, taxis and other vehicles used to move people and commodities. A persistent shortage can therefore increase the cost of transportation even before official pump prices are adjusted.
Higher transport costs can subsequently be passed on to consumers.
A farmer transporting produce from a rural district to an urban market, for example, may face increased vehicle operating costs. A wholesaler moving goods between Blantyre, Lilongwe and Mzuzu may also have to absorb additional fuel-related expenses. Retailers can then adjust their prices to compensate.
This creates a chain reaction in which a fuel shortage becomes a broader cost-of-living issue.
FEWS NET has similarly warned that elevated fuel prices continue to contribute to higher transport and distribution costs in Malawi.
Food prices face additional pressure
The relationship between fuel availability and food prices is particularly important for Malawi, where agriculture remains central to household livelihoods and national economic activity.
Fuel is required at almost every stage of the agricultural and food-distribution chain.
Farmers need fuel for transportation, irrigation equipment, machinery and other agricultural activities. Traders require fuel to move crops from producing areas to markets. Food processors and wholesalers also depend on reliable transportation.
Consequently, prolonged fuel shortages can increase the cost of moving agricultural products even when there has been no corresponding shortage of the commodity itself.
The pressure comes at a difficult time for Malawian households.
The World Bank’s latest Malawi Economic Monitor says food security remains fragile and increasingly dependent on imports. It also notes that higher fuel and electricity costs, exchange-rate pressures and wider macroeconomic imbalances are contributing to non-food inflation.
FEWS NET has likewise warned of elevated food prices and deteriorating purchasing power in parts of Malawi as the country enters the lean season.
Its August 2026 outlook projects Crisis-level food insecurity in some southern and central areas between October 2026 and January 2027, citing constrained purchasing power, high food prices and limited agricultural labour opportunities.
The fuel situation therefore cannot be considered separately from the country’s wider food-security challenges.
Businesses face rising operating costs
Malawi’s private sector is another major casualty of unreliable fuel supplies.
Small and medium-sized enterprises often operate with limited cash reserves and may have little capacity to absorb unexpected increases in transportation, logistics and energy costs.
A shortage of diesel can affect delivery trucks, construction equipment, generators and other machinery. Petrol shortages can disrupt taxis, courier services, small businesses and private transportation.
For manufacturers and larger companies, fuel supply uncertainty can complicate production and distribution schedules.
The resulting economic pressure may discourage investment, reduce operating hours and ultimately affect employment and household incomes.
The World Bank has previously highlighted the importance of foreign exchange availability to economic activity, noting that shortages of foreign currency constrain imports of raw materials and other production inputs.
Fuel is therefore only one part of a wider import-financing challenge confronting Malawi.
Rising fuel import bill adds pressure
Malawi is also facing a difficult combination of high fuel demand and an expensive import bill.
The Times Group reported in August that the country’s petrol and diesel import bill had risen sharply, with the combined value of fuel imports reaching approximately US$126.1 million in June 2026, compared with US$58.5 million in June 2025.
That increase means importers need substantially more foreign currency to secure the same essential commodity.
The situation creates a difficult policy dilemma.
Malawi needs fuel to keep the economy moving, but paying for imported fuel consumes scarce foreign exchange that could also be required for medicines, fertiliser, machinery, raw materials and other essential imports.
Economists have therefore warned that a rapidly rising fuel import bill can place additional pressure on the country’s already constrained foreign-exchange position.
The World Bank reported in September that Malawi’s official foreign-exchange reserves remained below one month of import cover, while the country’s trade deficit had widened as fuel and fertiliser imports outpaced export growth.
Government seeks alternative financing and supply routes
Authorities have not been passive in responding to the crisis.
NOCMA has pursued alternative supply routes and financing mechanisms intended to improve the reliability of fuel imports.
Earlier this year, NOCMA announced a US$50 million revolving credit facility from the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), describing the arrangement as an intervention aimed at easing foreign-currency constraints affecting fuel procurement.
The company has also increased reliance on alternative import routes, including Tanzania and Mozambique.
More recently, the government has sought additional external financing as the foreign-exchange crisis continues to affect fuel and fertiliser imports.
Malawi24 reported in September that the government had applied to access support under the African Development Bank’s Global Energy and Fertiliser Crisis Response Framework, highlighting the continuing pressure on foreign currency and essential imports.
These interventions could help reduce the severity of shortages, particularly if financing is released quickly and supply routes remain operational.
However, financing alone may not resolve the structural imbalance.
The deeper economic challenge
Malawi’s fuel crisis is ultimately part of a larger economic problem.
The country needs stronger and more predictable foreign-exchange earnings to finance imports. That requires increased production and export earnings, alongside measures that strengthen investor confidence, improve productivity and reduce vulnerabilities arising from excessive dependence on imported goods.
NOCMA’s Mataka has argued that Malawi needs to increase production, particularly in agriculture and mining, to generate additional foreign exchange.
The argument reflects a broader economic reality: as long as demand for foreign currency substantially exceeds the country’s ability to generate it, essential imports such as fuel will remain vulnerable to supply disruptions.
The World Bank’s September assessment similarly points to persistent foreign-exchange constraints, weak export competitiveness and broader macroeconomic imbalances as important obstacles to economic recovery.
Global fuel markets add another layer of uncertainty
Malawi’s domestic fuel problems are also occurring against a volatile international energy backdrop.
Recent global disruptions have affected diesel and other refined petroleum products, with geopolitical tensions and restrictions on fuel exports contributing to tighter international markets.
Reuters reported in October that Russia had extended restrictions on diesel exports, while China suspended certain fuel-product exports amid concerns over domestic inventories. These developments have contributed to wider pressure in international refined-fuel markets.